NBA Championship Odds
Probability each team wins the next NBA championship, computed from current ELO ratings.
As of 2026-06-02 · How we compute these →
All 30 Teams
Our Model — softmax of each team's ELO advantage; sums to 100%. Kalshi Market — implied probability from prediction-market trading prices (kalshi.com; "out" = team eliminated).
| # | Team | Our Model | Kalshi Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
San Antonio Spurs
|
50.7%
|
64.0% |
| 2 |
New York Knicks
|
49.3%
|
37.0% |
| 3 |
Atlanta Hawks
|
Out | out |
| 4 |
Boston Celtics
|
Out | out |
| 5 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
Out | out |
| 6 |
New Orleans Pelicans
|
Out | out |
| 7 |
Chicago Bulls
|
Out | out |
| 8 |
Dallas Mavericks
|
Out | out |
| 9 |
Denver Nuggets
|
Out | out |
| 10 |
Golden State Warriors
|
Out | out |
| 11 |
Houston Rockets
|
Out | out |
| 12 |
Los Angeles Clippers
|
Out | out |
| 13 |
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Out | out |
| 14 |
Miami Heat
|
Out | out |
| 15 |
Milwaukee Bucks
|
Out | out |
| 16 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
Out | out |
| 17 |
Brooklyn Nets
|
Out | out |
| 18 |
Orlando Magic
|
Out | out |
| 19 |
Indiana Pacers
|
Out | out |
| 20 |
Philadelphia 76ers
|
Out | out |
| 21 |
Phoenix Suns
|
Out | out |
| 22 |
Portland Trail Blazers
|
Out | out |
| 23 |
Sacramento Kings
|
Out | out |
| 24 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
Out | out |
| 25 |
Toronto Raptors
|
Out | out |
| 26 |
Utah Jazz
|
Out | out |
| 27 |
Memphis Grizzlies
|
Out | out |
| 28 |
Washington Wizards
|
Out | out |
| 29 |
Detroit Pistons
|
Out | out |
| 30 |
Charlotte Hornets
|
Out | out |
Methodology
Our Model softmaxes each team's ELO advantage against the league mean. During the playoffs, eliminated teams are zeroed out and the remaining mass is renormalised across teams still in contention.
ELO captures season-long strength: point differential, home court, opponent quality. It does not see injuries, recent form, or bracket-stage variance — a best-of-7 between two strong teams carries more uncertainty than the ELO gap alone suggests. As a "who's actually good" signal it's accurate: the ELO leader at end-of-regular-season has been the NBA champion in 5 of the last 5 seasons. As a complete title forecast it's incomplete.
Kalshi Market is the implied probability from real-money trading on each team's championship contract. The market prices in everything ELO can't see — injury reports, recent form, matchup-specific dynamics. When the two columns disagree by ten points or more, the market is usually closer to right.
Not betting advice. See Responsible Gambling if you or someone you know has a problem.