If ATL visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.0 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-9.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

106.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.7

103.4

Pace

98.2

ATL (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

ATL wins

2026-02-11 ATL 107 @ CHA 110 CHA W

2026-02-07 ATL 126 @ CHA 119 ATL W

2025-12-18 ATL 126 @ CHA 133 CHA W

2025-11-23 ATL 110 @ CHA 113 CHA W

2025-03-18 ATL 134 @ CHA 102 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score