If ATL visited DAL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.2 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-1.3

113.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.0

103.4

Pace

100.2

ATL (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

ATL wins

2026-03-18 ATL 135 @ DAL 120 ATL W

2026-03-10 ATL 112 @ DAL 124 DAL W

2025-04-02 ATL 118 @ DAL 120 DAL W

2024-11-25 ATL 129 @ DAL 119 ATL W

2024-04-04 ATL 95 @ DAL 109 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score