If ATL visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 81.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.2 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

2.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.6

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.5

103.4

Pace

100.3

ATL (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

ATL wins

2026-03-25 ATL 130 @ DET 129 ATL W

2025-12-12 ATL 115 @ DET 142 DET W

2025-12-01 ATL 98 @ DET 99 DET W

2025-11-18 ATL 120 @ DET 112 ATL W

2025-02-23 ATL 148 @ DET 143 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score