If ATL visited GSW today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.3 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

3.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

111.0

103.4

Pace

99.4

ATL (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

ATL wins

2026-03-21 ATL 110 @ GSW 126 GSW W

2026-01-11 ATL 124 @ GSW 111 ATL W

2025-03-22 ATL 115 @ GSW 124 GSW W

2024-11-20 ATL 97 @ GSW 120 GSW W

2024-02-03 ATL 134 @ GSW 141 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score