If ATL visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.7 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

4.6

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.9

114.8

Defensive Rating

110.3

103.4

Pace

99.0

ATL (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

ATL wins

2026-03-20 ATL 95 @ HOU 117 HOU W

2026-01-29 ATL 104 @ HOU 86 ATL W

2025-03-25 ATL 114 @ HOU 121 HOU W

2025-01-28 ATL 100 @ HOU 96 ATL W

2024-02-10 ATL 113 @ HOU 122 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score