If ATL visited LAC today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.0 points for LAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

4.9

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.3

114.8

Defensive Rating

109.4

103.4

Pace

98.2

ATL (Away) LAC (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

LAC 42-40 W1 Avg margin last 5: +2.0

W GSW

L POR

L OKC

W DAL

W SAC

Head-to-Head History

LAC wins

ATL wins

2025-12-03 ATL 115 @ LAC 92 ATL W

2025-11-10 ATL 105 @ LAC 102 ATL W

2025-03-14 ATL 121 @ LAC 98 ATL W

2025-01-04 ATL 105 @ LAC 131 LAC W

2024-03-17 ATL 110 @ LAC 93 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score