If ATL visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.8 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

12.7

113.7

Offensive Rating

119.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

106.6

103.4

Pace

100.9

ATL (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

ATL wins

2025-12-29 ATL 129 @ OKC 140 OKC W

2025-10-25 ATL 117 @ OKC 100 ATL W

2025-02-28 ATL 135 @ OKC 119 ATL W

2024-10-27 ATL 104 @ OKC 128 OKC W

2024-01-03 ATL 138 @ OKC 141 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score