If ATL visited WAS today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.1 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-12.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

105.8

114.8

Defensive Rating

118.0

103.4

Pace

101.8

ATL (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

ATL wins

2026-02-26 ATL 96 @ WAS 126 WAS W

2026-02-24 ATL 98 @ WAS 119 WAS W

2025-12-06 ATL 131 @ WAS 116 ATL W

2025-11-25 ATL 113 @ WAS 132 WAS W

2025-02-08 ATL 125 @ WAS 111 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score