If BOS visited BKN today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -16.7 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-7.3

119.5

Offensive Rating

108.1

110.1

Defensive Rating

115.4

96.6

Pace

96.7

BOS (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

BOS wins

2026-02-27 BOS 111 @ BKN 148 BKN W

2026-01-23 BOS 130 @ BKN 126 BOS W

2025-11-21 BOS 113 @ BKN 105 BOS W

2025-11-18 BOS 113 @ BKN 99 BOS W

2025-03-18 BOS 96 @ BKN 104 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score