If BOS visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -18.5 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-9.1

119.5

Offensive Rating

106.7

110.1

Defensive Rating

115.7

96.6

Pace

98.2

BOS (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

BOS wins

2026-04-07 BOS 102 @ CHA 113 CHA W

2026-03-29 BOS 114 @ CHA 99 BOS W

2026-03-04 BOS 118 @ CHA 89 BOS W

2025-04-13 BOS 86 @ CHA 93 CHA W

2025-04-11 BOS 94 @ CHA 130 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score