If BOS visited DAL today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.7 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-1.3

119.5

Offensive Rating

113.7

110.1

Defensive Rating

115.0

96.6

Pace

100.2

BOS (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

BOS wins

2026-03-06 BOS 100 @ DAL 120 DAL W

2026-02-03 BOS 110 @ DAL 100 BOS W

2025-02-06 BOS 127 @ DAL 120 BOS W

2025-01-25 BOS 122 @ DAL 107 BOS W

2024-06-17 BOS 88 @ DAL 106 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score