If BOS visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.6 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

3.8

119.5

Offensive Rating

118.9

110.1

Defensive Rating

115.1

96.6

Pace

100.7

BOS (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

BOS wins

2026-02-25 BOS 84 @ DEN 103 DEN W

2026-01-07 BOS 114 @ DEN 110 BOS W

2025-03-02 BOS 103 @ DEN 110 DEN W

2025-01-07 BOS 118 @ DEN 106 BOS W

2024-03-07 BOS 109 @ DEN 115 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score