If BOS visited ORL today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.6 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-0.2

119.5

Offensive Rating

108.9

110.1

Defensive Rating

109.1

96.6

Pace

96.5

BOS (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

BOS wins

2026-04-12 BOS 108 @ ORL 113 ORL W

2025-11-23 BOS 129 @ ORL 138 ORL W

2025-11-09 BOS 111 @ ORL 107 BOS W

2025-11-07 BOS 110 @ ORL 123 ORL W

2025-04-29 BOS 89 @ ORL 120 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score