If BOS visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.2 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-2.8

119.5

Offensive Rating

113.5

110.1

Defensive Rating

116.3

96.6

Pace

100.1

BOS (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

BOS wins

2026-03-10 BOS 116 @ SAS 125 SAS W

2026-01-10 BOS 100 @ SAS 95 BOS W

2025-03-29 BOS 121 @ SAS 111 BOS W

2025-02-12 BOS 103 @ SAS 116 SAS W

2024-01-17 BOS 98 @ SAS 117 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score