If BOS visited TOR today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.5 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-4.1

119.5

Offensive Rating

109.6

110.1

Defensive Rating

113.6

96.6

Pace

100.6

BOS (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

BOS wins

2026-04-05 BOS 101 @ TOR 115 TOR W

2026-01-09 BOS 117 @ TOR 125 TOR W

2025-12-20 BOS 112 @ TOR 96 BOS W

2025-12-07 BOS 121 @ TOR 113 BOS W

2025-02-25 BOS 111 @ TOR 101 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score