If CHA visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +18.5 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

9.4

106.7

Offensive Rating

119.5

115.7

Defensive Rating

110.1

98.2

Pace

96.6

CHA (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

CHA wins

2026-04-07 CHA 102 @ BOS 113 BOS W

2026-03-29 CHA 114 @ BOS 99 CHA W

2026-03-04 CHA 118 @ BOS 89 CHA W

2025-04-13 CHA 86 @ BOS 93 BOS W

2025-04-11 CHA 94 @ BOS 130 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score