If CHA visited CHI today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.5 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-1.6

106.7

Offensive Rating

113.2

115.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.2

Pace

103.6

CHA (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

CHA wins

2026-02-24 CHA 131 @ CHI 99 CHA W

2026-01-03 CHA 112 @ CHI 99 CHA W

2025-12-12 CHA 129 @ CHI 126 CHA W

2025-11-28 CHA 116 @ CHI 123 CHI W

2025-04-06 CHA 131 @ CHI 117 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score