If CHA visited DAL today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.8 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-1.3

106.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.7

Defensive Rating

115.0

98.2

Pace

100.2

CHA (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

CHA wins

2026-03-03 CHA 90 @ DAL 117 DAL W

2026-01-29 CHA 123 @ DAL 121 CHA W

2025-02-27 CHA 96 @ DAL 103 DAL W

2025-01-20 CHA 105 @ DAL 110 DAL W

2024-04-09 CHA 130 @ DAL 104 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score