If CHA visited GSW today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.3 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

3.2

106.7

Offensive Rating

114.2

115.7

Defensive Rating

111.0

98.2

Pace

99.4

CHA (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

CHA wins

2026-01-17 CHA 116 @ GSW 136 GSW W

2025-12-31 CHA 132 @ GSW 125 CHA W

2025-03-03 CHA 119 @ GSW 101 CHA W

2025-02-25 CHA 92 @ GSW 128 GSW W

2024-03-29 CHA 115 @ GSW 97 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score