If CHA visited IND today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.2 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

2.1

106.7

Offensive Rating

115.4

115.7

Defensive Rating

113.3

98.2

Pace

100.8

CHA (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

CHA wins

2026-04-03 CHA 108 @ IND 129 IND W

2026-02-26 CHA 133 @ IND 109 CHA W

2026-01-08 CHA 114 @ IND 112 CHA W

2025-11-19 CHA 118 @ IND 127 IND W

2025-04-02 CHA 105 @ IND 119 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score