If CHA visited MIN today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +14.1 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

5.0

106.7

Offensive Rating

115.7

Defensive Rating

110.8

98.2

Pace

98.0

CHA (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

CHA wins

2026-04-05 CHA 122 @ MIN 108 CHA W

2025-11-01 CHA 122 @ MIN 105 CHA W

2025-03-05 CHA 125 @ MIN 110 CHA W

2024-11-04 CHA 93 @ MIN 114 MIN W

2024-01-22 CHA 128 @ MIN 125 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score