If CHA visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +21.8 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

12.7

106.7

Offensive Rating

119.2

115.7

Defensive Rating

106.6

98.2

Pace

100.9

CHA (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

CHA wins

2026-01-05 CHA 124 @ OKC 97 CHA W

2025-11-15 CHA 109 @ OKC 96 CHA W

2025-03-21 CHA 106 @ OKC 141 OKC W

2024-12-28 CHA 106 @ OKC 94 CHA W

2024-04-07 CHA 121 @ OKC 118 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score