If CHA visited ORL today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 57.1% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.9 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-0.2

106.7

Offensive Rating

108.9

115.7

Defensive Rating

109.1

98.2

Pace

96.5

CHA (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

CHA wins

2026-03-19 CHA 111 @ ORL 130 ORL W

2026-01-22 CHA 124 @ ORL 97 CHA W

2025-12-26 CHA 120 @ ORL 105 CHA W

2025-10-30 CHA 123 @ ORL 107 CHA W

2025-03-25 CHA 111 @ ORL 104 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 57.1% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score