If CHA visited SAC today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.7 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

0.6

106.7

Offensive Rating

115.9

115.7

Defensive Rating

115.3

98.2

Pace

98.9

CHA (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

CHA wins

2026-03-24 CHA 90 @ SAC 134 SAC W

2026-03-11 CHA 117 @ SAC 109 CHA W

2025-04-04 CHA 125 @ SAC 102 CHA W

2025-02-24 CHA 88 @ SAC 130 SAC W

2024-01-10 CHA 123 @ SAC 98 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score