If CHA visited WAS today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.1 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-12.2

106.7

Offensive Rating

105.8

115.7

Defensive Rating

118.0

98.2

Pace

101.8

CHA (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

CHA wins

2026-02-22 CHA 129 @ WAS 112 CHA W

2026-01-24 CHA 115 @ WAS 119 WAS W

2025-12-23 CHA 109 @ WAS 126 WAS W

2025-10-26 CHA 139 @ WAS 113 CHA W

2025-03-01 CHA 113 @ WAS 100 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score