If CHI visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.5 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-1.1

113.2

Offensive Rating

113.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

114.8

103.6

Pace

103.4

CHI (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

CHI wins

2025-12-23 CHI 126 @ ATL 123 CHI W

2025-12-21 CHI 152 @ ATL 150 CHI W

2025-10-27 CHI 123 @ ATL 128 ATL W

2025-01-15 CHI 110 @ ATL 94 CHI W

2024-12-26 CHI 133 @ ATL 141 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score