If CHI visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.5 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-9.1

113.2

Offensive Rating

106.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.7

103.6

Pace

98.2

CHI (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

CHI wins

2026-02-24 CHI 131 @ CHA 99 CHI W

2026-01-03 CHI 112 @ CHA 99 CHI W

2025-12-12 CHI 129 @ CHA 126 CHI W

2025-11-28 CHI 116 @ CHA 123 CHA W

2025-04-06 CHI 131 @ CHA 117 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score