If CHI visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.8 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

9.2

113.2

Offensive Rating

121.0

114.8

Defensive Rating

111.8

103.6

Pace

100.3

CHI (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

CHI wins

2026-03-19 CHI 115 @ CLE 110 CHI W

2025-12-19 CHI 136 @ CLE 125 CHI W

2025-12-17 CHI 111 @ CLE 127 CLE W

2025-11-08 CHI 122 @ CLE 128 CLE W

2025-04-08 CHI 113 @ CLE 135 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score