If CHI visited IND today, our model would lean Indiana Pacers with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.7 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

2.1

113.2

Offensive Rating

115.4

114.8

Defensive Rating

113.3

103.6

Pace

100.8

CHI (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

CHI wins

2026-04-01 CHI 145 @ IND 126 CHI W

2026-01-28 CHI 110 @ IND 113 IND W

2025-12-05 CHI 120 @ IND 105 CHI W

2025-11-29 CHI 101 @ IND 103 IND W

2025-03-10 CHI 103 @ IND 121 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score