If CHI visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.6 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

5.0

113.2

Offensive Rating

115.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

110.8

103.6

Pace

98.0

CHI (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

CHI wins

2026-01-22 CHI 120 @ MIN 115 CHI W

2025-12-29 CHI 136 @ MIN 101 CHI W

2025-02-05 CHI 108 @ MIN 127 MIN W

2024-11-07 CHI 135 @ MIN 119 CHI W

2024-03-31 CHI 109 @ MIN 101 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score