If CHI visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.7 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-6.3

113.2

Offensive Rating

111.0

114.8

Defensive Rating

117.3

103.6

Pace

98.1

CHI (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

CHI wins

2026-03-25 CHI 137 @ PHI 157 PHI W

2025-12-26 CHI 102 @ PHI 109 PHI W

2025-11-04 CHI 111 @ PHI 113 PHI W

2025-04-13 CHI 122 @ PHI 102 CHI W

2025-02-24 CHI 142 @ PHI 110 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score