If CHI visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.2 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-2.8

113.2

Offensive Rating

113.5

114.8

Defensive Rating

116.3

103.6

Pace

100.1

CHI (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

CHI wins

2026-03-30 CHI 114 @ SAS 129 SAS W

2025-11-10 CHI 121 @ SAS 117 CHI W

2025-01-06 CHI 110 @ SAS 114 SAS W

2024-12-05 CHI 139 @ SAS 124 CHI W

2024-01-13 CHI 122 @ SAS 116 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score