If CHI visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -2.5 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.6

Net Rating

-4.1

113.2

Offensive Rating

109.6

114.8

Defensive Rating

113.6

103.6

Pace

100.6

CHI (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

CHI wins

2026-03-18 CHI 139 @ TOR 109 CHI W

2026-02-19 CHI 110 @ TOR 101 CHI W

2026-02-05 CHI 107 @ TOR 123 TOR W

2025-04-01 CHI 118 @ TOR 137 TOR W

2025-02-28 CHI 115 @ TOR 125 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score