If CLE visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.3 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-1.1

121.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

111.8

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.3

Pace

103.4

CLE (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

CLE wins

2026-04-10 CLE 102 @ ATL 124 ATL W

2026-04-08 CLE 116 @ ATL 122 ATL W

2025-11-28 CLE 123 @ ATL 130 ATL W

2025-11-02 CLE 109 @ ATL 117 ATL W

2025-01-30 CLE 115 @ ATL 137 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score