If CLE visited CHI today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.8 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-1.6

121.0

Offensive Rating

113.2

111.8

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.3

Pace

103.6

CLE (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

CLE wins

2026-03-19 CLE 115 @ CHI 110 CLE W

2025-12-19 CLE 136 @ CHI 125 CLE W

2025-12-17 CLE 111 @ CHI 127 CHI W

2025-11-08 CLE 122 @ CHI 128 CHI W

2025-04-08 CLE 113 @ CHI 135 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score