If CLE visited DAL today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.5 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-1.3

121.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

111.8

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.3

Pace

100.2

CLE (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

CLE wins

2026-03-15 CLE 130 @ DAL 120 CLE W

2026-03-13 CLE 138 @ DAL 105 CLE W

2025-02-02 CLE 101 @ DAL 144 DAL W

2025-01-03 CLE 134 @ DAL 122 CLE W

2024-02-27 CLE 119 @ DAL 121 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score