If CLE visited DEN today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.4 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

3.8

121.0

Offensive Rating

118.9

111.8

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.3

Pace

100.7

CLE (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

CLE wins

2026-02-09 CLE 119 @ DEN 117 CLE W

2026-01-02 CLE 108 @ DEN 113 DEN W

2024-12-27 CLE 149 @ DEN 135 CLE W

2024-12-05 CLE 114 @ DEN 126 DEN W

2024-03-31 CLE 101 @ DEN 130 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score