If CLE visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -13.3 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.2

Net Rating

-4.1

121.0

Offensive Rating

109.6

111.8

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.3

Pace

100.6

CLE (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

CLE wins

2026-05-03 CLE 102 @ TOR 114 TOR W

2026-05-01 CLE 110 @ TOR 112 TOR W

2026-04-29 CLE 120 @ TOR 125 TOR W

2026-04-26 CLE 89 @ TOR 93 TOR W

2026-04-23 CLE 104 @ TOR 126 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score