If DAL visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.2 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-1.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.0

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.2

Pace

103.4

DAL (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

DAL wins

2026-03-18 DAL 135 @ ATL 120 DAL W

2026-03-10 DAL 112 @ ATL 124 ATL W

2025-04-02 DAL 118 @ ATL 120 ATL W

2024-11-25 DAL 129 @ ATL 119 DAL W

2024-04-04 DAL 95 @ ATL 109 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score