If DAL visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.5 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

9.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

121.0

115.0

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.2

Pace

100.3

DAL (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

DAL wins

2026-03-15 DAL 130 @ CLE 120 DAL W

2026-03-13 DAL 138 @ CLE 105 DAL W

2025-02-02 DAL 101 @ CLE 144 CLE W

2025-01-03 DAL 134 @ CLE 122 DAL W

2024-02-27 DAL 119 @ CLE 121 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score