If DAL visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

2.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.6

115.0

Defensive Rating

112.5

100.2

Pace

100.3

DAL (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

DAL wins

2025-12-18 DAL 114 @ DET 116 DET W

2025-11-01 DAL 122 @ DET 110 DAL W

2025-03-21 DAL 117 @ DET 123 DET W

2025-01-31 DAL 102 @ DET 117 DET W

2024-04-12 DAL 107 @ DET 89 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score