If DAL visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 70.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.5 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

3.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.2

115.0

Defensive Rating

111.0

100.2

Pace

99.4

DAL (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

DAL wins

2026-03-23 DAL 137 @ GSW 131 DAL W

2026-01-22 DAL 115 @ GSW 123 GSW W

2025-12-25 DAL 116 @ GSW 126 GSW W

2025-02-23 DAL 102 @ GSW 126 GSW W

2025-02-12 DAL 107 @ GSW 111 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 70.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score