If DAL visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.9 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

4.6

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.9

115.0

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.2

Pace

99.0

DAL (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

DAL wins

2026-01-31 DAL 107 @ HOU 111 HOU W

2026-01-03 DAL 104 @ HOU 110 HOU W

2025-12-06 DAL 109 @ HOU 122 HOU W

2025-11-03 DAL 102 @ HOU 110 HOU W

2025-03-14 DAL 96 @ HOU 133 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score