If DAL visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.5 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

1.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.0

Defensive Rating

113.8

100.2

Pace

98.3

DAL (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

DAL wins

2026-04-05 DAL 128 @ LAL 134 LAL W

2026-02-12 DAL 104 @ LAL 124 LAL W

2026-01-24 DAL 116 @ LAL 110 DAL W

2025-11-28 DAL 119 @ LAL 129 LAL W

2025-04-09 DAL 112 @ LAL 97 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score