If DAL visited MEM today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.0 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

4.7

113.7

Offensive Rating

117.2

115.0

Defensive Rating

112.6

100.2

Pace

103.7

DAL (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

DAL wins

2026-03-12 DAL 120 @ MEM 112 DAL W

2026-02-27 DAL 124 @ MEM 105 DAL W

2025-11-22 DAL 102 @ MEM 96 DAL W

2025-11-07 DAL 104 @ MEM 118 MEM W

2025-04-13 DAL 97 @ MEM 132 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score