If DAL visited MIL today, our model would lean Milwaukee Bucks with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.7 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

2.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.1

115.0

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.2

Pace

99.9

DAL (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

DAL wins

2026-03-31 DAL 99 @ MIL 123 MIL W

2025-11-10 DAL 116 @ MIL 114 DAL W

2025-03-05 DAL 107 @ MIL 137 MIL W

2025-03-01 DAL 132 @ MIL 117 DAL W

2024-02-03 DAL 129 @ MIL 117 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score