If DAL visited PHI today, our model would lean Philadelphia 76ers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.0 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-6.3

113.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

115.0

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.2

Pace

98.1

DAL (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

DAL wins

2026-01-01 DAL 123 @ PHI 108 DAL W

2025-12-20 DAL 114 @ PHI 121 PHI W

2025-03-16 DAL 130 @ PHI 125 DAL W

2025-02-04 DAL 116 @ PHI 118 PHI W

2024-03-03 DAL 120 @ PHI 116 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score