If DAL visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 82.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.7 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-3.0

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.7

115.0

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.2

Pace

98.3

DAL (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

DAL wins

2026-04-08 DAL 107 @ PHX 112 PHX W

2026-02-10 DAL 111 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2025-11-12 DAL 123 @ PHX 114 DAL W

2025-03-09 DAL 125 @ PHX 116 DAL W

2024-12-27 DAL 98 @ PHX 89 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 82.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score