If DAL visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.5 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.3

Net Rating

-2.8

113.7

Offensive Rating

113.5

115.0

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.2

Pace

100.1

DAL (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

DAL wins

2026-04-10 DAL 120 @ SAS 139 SAS W

2026-02-07 DAL 125 @ SAS 138 SAS W

2026-02-05 DAL 135 @ SAS 123 DAL W

2025-10-22 DAL 125 @ SAS 92 DAL W

2025-03-12 DAL 116 @ SAS 126 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score